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Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Cyprus presidential runoff brings promise of new hope for speedy reunification deal


The ouster of a hard-line incumbent from Cyprus' presidential race has opened new prospects for a speedy deal to reunify the island, with two moderate contenders pledging an end to the crippling stalemate.

In the race's shock first round, Tassos Papadopoulos was forced out after coming third behind former Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides and communist AKEL party leader Demetris Christofias, who will face one another in the Feb. 24 runoff.

The result indicates that Cypriots may be willing to negotiate quickly on a compromise that could lead to reunification with the Turkish-occupied northern part of the island.

"This election marked a change in the political landscape," said Joseph Joseph, a political science professor at the University of Cyprus.

"Both candidates are seen as more ... conciliatory."

Kasoulides, 59, and Christofias, 61, had criticized the president for sticking to policies that frustrated European Union partners and edged Cyprus toward a permanent partition.

Instead, they have promised prompt negotiations with the Turkish Cypriot community on a deal that would bring the entire island into the EU. An agreement could also remove a thorn in Turkey's troubled path to joining the EU.

The election had been billed as a referendum on Papadopoulos' tough approach to reunification. Cyprus has been split since 1974 into a Turkish-occupied north and an internationally recognized Greek Cypriot south.

Papadopoulos, 74, was key in urging Greek Cypriots to reject a U.N. reunification plan in a 2004 referendum. Turkish Cypriots approved it in a separate vote. Cyprus joined the European Union as Europe's last divided country.

"People have turned away from Papadopoulos' policies," said European University history professor Andrekos Varnava.

"Papadopoulos put the Cyprus issue at the core of his campaign and he was left out."

The president advocated cautious talks with the breakaway Turkish Cypriot community and had vowed never to accept a revival of the defunct U.N. plan that Greek Cypriots rejected over fears it was weighted in Turkey's favor.

"Both Kasoulides and Christofias hold similar views on the Cyprus issue. They represented change and Papadopoulos represented the opposite," said Varnava.

The first-round results were welcomed by Turkish Cypriots who saw it as evidence of a Greek Cypriot willingness to engage in renewed peace talks.

Ferdi Sabit Soyer, prime minister of the breakaway Turkish Cypriot state recognized only by Turkey, said the election "sent an important message."

Commenting on Turkish Cypriot television, Soyer said the combined votes of Kasoulides and Christofias indicated a shift in Greek Cypriot public opinion toward a settlement.

Kasoulides and Christofias may share a similar approach to reunification but politically, they are ideological opposites. The former foreign minister hails from the right-wing DISY party, the longtime adversary of communist AKEL.

That could prove the deciding factor on which way supporters of the center-right Papadopoulos swing, Varnava said.

Kasoulides edged Christofias by a mere 980 votes, winning 33.51 percent to Christofias' 33.29 percent. About 516,000 voters, including 390 Turkish Cypriots living in the south, were registered to vote.

Both candidates are going all out to woo the 31.79 percent who backed Papadopoulos. The potential kingmaker is the center-right DIKO, the biggest party in the Papadopoulos coalition.

Varnava said DIKO could split, with one faction opting to support Christofias, as he is seen as more resistant to pressure to accept an unfavorable reunification deal. Still, many DIKO members regard Christofias with suspicion because of his communist roots.

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