Crucial Cyprus election seen going down to wire

Half a million Greek Cypriots vote for a new president next week in a cliffhanger race which could influence Turkey's EU accession hopes and affect NATO-EU cooperation in trouble spots worldwide.

Polls published on Sunday give incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos, communist challenger Demetris Christofias and right-winger Ioannis Kassoulides virtually equal chances in the February 17 vote, possibly leading to a run-off on February 24.

"Only the Pythia knows," wrote the daily Politis, referring to the priestess at the Delphi Oracle, credited by ancient Greeks with having powers to predict the future.

Regardless of who wins, diplomats say mediators plan one last crack this year at mending fences between Greek and Turkish Cypriots on opposing sides of a U.N. ceasefire line which has split the Mediterranean island for almost 35 years.

The festering conflict has been a thorn in relations between NATO allies Turkey and Greece, and the stakes from the Cyprus spillover are high in both the European Union and NATO.

Since Cyprus joined the EU in 2004, represented by Greek Cypriots, it has frustrated Turkey's EU aspirations. Sparring between Turkey and Cyprus has also hampered joint EU-NATO cooperation in Kosovo and Afghanistan.

"The choice is if we want to use the next few years to try to finally solve this problem, or if we will see a continuing drift towards partition," a Western diplomat told Reuters.

Diplomats see Kassoulides and Christofias as more moderate than Papadopoulos, whose sometimes authoritarian manner has earned him a "hardliner" label, a tag he vehemently rejects
Papadopoulos led the Greek Cypriot rejection of a U.N. reunification blueprint in 2004, with critics charging that he has made no real attempt to break the deadlock since then.

The United Nations is expected to send aides in March to assess reunification prospects. Analysts and diplomats say it may be a half-hearted effort if Papadopoulos wins a second term.

"This is a very decisive election. The record of the Papadopoulos presidency is one of non-progress ... and people expect more of the same if he is re-elected," said analyst Hubert Faustmann.

Divided since a Turkish invasion in 1974 triggered by a brief Greek-inspired coup, an army of mediators have failed to resolve the conflict.

"This problem won't go away on its own, and it will make things a lot more difficult in terms of regional cooperation as time goes by," another diplomat said.

There is a growing consensus that mediators can ill afford further delays in addressing Cyprus, lest reconciliation efforts begin to overlap with Turkey's EU accession talks, already troubled by opposition from France and Germany.

"This would risk ... trade-offs between the two, or a cumulative burden of compromises that might become too great for the Turks to accept, potentially wrecking both negotiations with one stroke," said former British envoy David Hannay.