A great talent for going nowhere

WE HEARD countless platitudes in the last few days, inspired by the third anniversary of the referendum on the Annan plan, which gave rise to the customary festival of triumphal rhetoric and emotional posturing.

The general verdict of the pro-government camp was that we were now in a much stronger position having saved the Cyprus Republic and having joined the EU, while anyone who expressed doubts about this was an enemy of the state and a propagandist for the Turkish side.

Despite the avalanche of words, we did not hear the government or any of its cheerleaders tell us where the national problem was heading or how they would achieve the end of the division, which, supposedly, remained the long-term objective. ‘Long-term’ is the key phrase here, because nobody in the Cyprus government seems to be in a great hurry for a settlement, despite conceding, in rare moments of frankness, that time is working against us.

Most people can see through the government’s conflicting messages. An opinion poll, commissioned by UNFICYP, found that 70 per cent of Greek Cypriots did not believe there would be a settlement of the Cyprus problem in the foreseeable future. Most of the Turkish Cypriots (57 per cent) also took this view, making this the only question on which the majorities of both communities agreed.

There is complete disagreement on the most desirable type of settlement – the overwhelming majority of Greek Cypriots (72 per cent) considered a unitary state acceptable, while most Turkish Cypriots (67 per cent) rejected it; 59 per cent of Turkish Cypriots considered a two-state solution satisfactory, while 73 per cent of Greek Cypriots rejected it.

This left us with the much-maligned bi-communal, bi-zonal federation, which according to the survey, is found tolerable, a necessary evil, by the majority of both communities. But it will certainly not be the federation described, in detail, in the Annan plan, as this is no longer on the negotiating table, but, as the Government Spokesman memorably remarked, “on the autopsy table”.

This poses a serious problem as far as a settlement is concerned, because the Turkish Cypriots have been labouring under the illusion that the plan was alive and well and on the negotiating table. President Papadopoulos delayed so long in proposing the substantive changes he wanted made to it so the plan would be acceptable to the Greek Cypriots that it died.

But the government and its supporters have now found a new lollipop to suck on – the July 8 agreement, which, in a little over couple of months, will be celebrating its first anniversary. The agreement was supposedly aimed at preparing the ground for negotiations, but the two sides have yet to agree what technical committees and working groups that would have done the preparation work would discuss.

A few weeks ago, Mehmet Ali Talat announced he was considering abandoning the agreement, presumably unable to cope with 90-plus chapters Papadopoulos had submitted for discussion by the working groups.

As the Annan plan was dead, the president seized the opportunity to negotiate a settlement plan from scratch.This is never going to happen without the agreement of the Turkish Cypriot side, but the president had no problems presenting the deadlock as a diplomatic victory.

“We are setting the agenda for the Cyprus issue,” he boasted in an interview to Simerini last Sunday, adding that Nicosia now had the initiative.

But what initiative was he talking about – the initiative in making a settlement impossible and blaming the Turkish Cypriot side for it?

He has been successful in this respect, by turning the July 8 agreement into a talks-preparation procedure that would never end; and Talat would pull out of the procedure and carry the blame for not honouring his signature.

The pro-government camp may admire the president’s ingenious plan to turn the peace process into a never-ending procedural squabble and blame-game that leads nowhere. Nowhere is exactly the place Papadopoulos wants to take us and 70 per cent of the Greek Cypriots have recognised this, as the UNFICYP poll suggests.

The truth is very few of them were complaining last week as the anniversary of the referendum was marked, which could only be interpreted as a vote of confidence in the government.

July 8, Morphou, Famagusta and our stupidity

By Nicos A Rolandis

A tragedy in three acts

ACT ONE – SCENE ONE: Summer 1981.

UN Secretary-general Kurt Waldheim is in the last year of his second term of office. The Cyprus problem is at a complete standstill. In December 1978, we had rejected the Anglo-American-Canadian plan, as a result of a negative interference by AKEL and by the Soviet Union.

In May 1979, Waldheim arrived reluctantly in Cyprus (I had a meeting with him in Geneva a month earlier and I convinced him to come) for the signature of the high level Agreement by Kyprianou and Denktash. Nothing happened in the wake of the Agreement. AKEL, which was seeking a solution but would not tolerate the 1978 plan of the “imperialists”, clashed with Kyprianou for his inaction. They levelled harsh accusations at each other.

In May 1980, each one went his own way.Waldheim had to do something. He did not want to leave a vacuum behind him. After all, this had been the standard practice of the United Nations: to save their own credibility and prestige when the supposedly “interested parties” were not really interested. So, the “Evaluation” of Waldheim emerged.

It was a long document with limited political substance. Both Kyprianou and Denktash took a negative stance. Interlocutor George Ioannides paid regular visits to my office enquiring how he should handle the various issues. But there were no guidelines from the President. Eventually, there was no way out of the hundreds of points of difference which were recorded.

Waldheim, though, had accomplished his mission.

ACT ONE-SCENE TWO: Summer 2006

(have 25 years really gone by?), UN Secretary-general Kofi Annan is in the last year of his second term of office. The Cyprus problem is once again at a complete standstill. In April 2004, we had rejected the Annan plan (the seventh plan we had rejected – truly there was nothing left, we had rejected all of them) despite the fact that the plan bore the stamp of a unanimous approval of the Security Council – Resolution 1475.

The Rally Party and the Free Democrats accepted the Plan. The President shed tears and dumped it. AKEL did not shed any tears. On the contrary, it glorified the plan, like nobody else did, stating that “the plan reunites Cyprus, it will rid us of the Turkish occupation forces, it will restore human rights”.

AKEL upheld the plan by a 71.5 per cent majority at its Political Bureau. AKEL also wanted to “cement” the plan. But on the following day it rejected it, so that its Ministers could stay in the Cabinet! AKEL also charged that the people of Cyprus had been brainwashed to reject the plan. Kofi Annan had to do something, like Waldheim did, to avoid a vacuum on the eve of his departure. So he presented the “8th of July”.

It is a simple piece of paper, which contains some basic principles, known to all of us since 1977: that the solution will be “bizonal and bicommunal” (even the cats in our houses are well conversant with this) and that the “status quo” is not acceptable (as if it could ever be acceptable).

There will be a large number of Technical (?) Committees and Working Groups which have to address more than 120 chapters piled up in the meantime. There are also sub-divisions of these chapters and the grand total runs into the hundreds. A chaotic abyss. To remove any suspicion that my above conclusions are driven by an oppositionist disposition, I cite a comment on March 13, 2007 in a pro-government large-circulation daily:

“We repeat what has become clear to our unsophisticated mind. The Technical Committees and the Working Groups are sheer nonsense, so that time will go by and people will have the illusion that something is happening on Cyprus.”

So, let us go ahead with the “sheer nonsense”.

After all this is what we wanted. Everybody is happy, including Kofi Annan, who has accomplished his mission and at the same time has punished us.

ACT TWO – SCENE ONE: Morphou.

As I wrote in a previous article of mine, in 1981 we put up a fight, because at that time the first UN map (Gobbi map) for the Cyprus territorial arrangement was in the wings.

I had dozens of meetings with Hugo Gobbi the Special Representative of Waldheim on the subject, so that Morphou could be included under Greek Cypriot administration. Gobbi dithered – he felt that Morphou would be the main wealth producing area of the north. We, on the other hand, knew that without the massive return of the Morphou refugees, there could be no solution.

I had George Ioannides, Michael Triantafyllides, Stella Soulioti and Alecos Shambos working with me on the subject. Then, on October 2, 1981, at 7pm at the Pierre Hotel in New York, Gobbi instructed Shambos, in my presence, to draw the line on the map.

Morphou and the villages of the area were on the Greek Cypriot side. Both Shambos and myself shed some tears (not the same as those of President Papadopoulos). The map was confirmed by Waldheim a few days later.

ACT TWO – SCENE TWO: 2004.

In the Annan plan, Morphou is under Greek Cypriot administration, exactly as it was recorded on the Gobbi map.

However, we rejected the plan which was so strongly praised by AKEL. So Morphou was gone together with the overall rejection. Nowadays, according to press reports, new settlers are moving into Morphou, the houses are repaired for a long term stay of the Turkish Cypriot inhabitants and investments of hundreds of millions of dollars are under way. Under such circumstances, the 1981 success will be reversed.

It appears that we have learned nothing from history.

ACT THREE: Famagusta.

The Lady of the Sea. We betrayed her seven times in the past, more times than Peter renounced Christ. The last one (Annan plan) was the most tragic. Its lawful residents would have returned to their homes two and a half years ago.

Instead, today they collect signatures. “You sign… and you… and you…” Who are they trying to convince? Themselves? Because people abroad will not be convinced, all things considered. They refused to embark on the last train and they now try to find a bicycle to catch up.

Good luck.

EPILOGUE:

Ancient Greek Tragedies ended with catharsis. Aristotle says that “catharsis constitutes the purging of suffering arising from the drama. Catharsis in tragedies comes after a long process, so that viewers will feel mercy and compassion for the unfolding drama.”So, what is it that fits our case? The “mercy and compassion” of Aristotle?

And which catharsis and which God will purge us all, Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, after 44 years of sins and blunders? How shall we be vindicated in the atmosphere of incoherence which persists all over? I wonder whether the three great tragic Poets of Ancient Greece, Aeschylus, Sophocles and Euripides, acting all of them together, can answer this question.

Themistocleous lays down challenge to Cyprus presidency

Former Agriculture Minister and deputy leader of the United Democrats, Costas Themistocleous, declared his candidacy for the next presidential election in February 2008.

Themistocleous, whose small party failed to get into parliament in May 2006 and has been attacked by the ruling coalition, said that “we have to bring the Cyprus problem back on track towards a solution by Autumn 2008 and not 15 years from now.”

He said that his platform is clear and wants to see the implementation of the changes to the United Nations’ plan as agreed to by the Greek Cypriot National Council, the advisory body to the president on the Cyprus problem.

Themistocleous said he will call on the U.N. to revive the peace process and allow for a six-month period to discuss and agree on changes to the ‘Annan Plan’, that was rejected by the majority fo the Greek Cypriot in April 2004, but embraced by most fo the Turkish Cypriots.

“We should exhaust the discussion on the changes that have been proposed and which the Turkish Cypriot side is willing to discuss, after which we should go back to a new referendum,” he said.

Themistocloeus said there is a conflict in the government’s handling of the Cyprus problem, with the coalition’s main partner, the communist AKEL party, in a dialogue with the Turkish Cypriot Republican Party on how a new U.N. plan with the necessary changes could become the basis for a solution.

As regards support from other political groupings, the main opposition party, Democratic Rally (DISY) deputy president Averof Neophytou said that, “if Mr. Themistocleous approaches our party through a democratic process, we will not refuse to listen to him.”

One of DISY’s leading members, former Foreign Minister and present-day MEP for the European Popular Party Ioannis Kasoulides, has expressed interest to run in the next presidential elections as an independent candidate.

He will be facing incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos who is hoping to get re-elected on the coalition ticket of the AKEL, his own Democratic Party (DIKO) and the smaller socialist EDEK.

However, many die-hard communists want their party Secretary General and House president Demetris Christofias also to run for president in an effort to show voter strength in the first round.

The president of Cyprus is the chief executive of the government and is elected by direct vote. If no one candidate gets 50% plus one vote in the first round, then the two leading candidates go to a second round, two weeks later. All adults over the age of 18 can vote and voting is limited to the territory of the Republic of Cyprus.

Tassos Papadopoulos is the fifth president.

Archbishop Makarios III reigned from Independence in 1960 to his death in August 1977. He was succeeded by Spyros Kyprianou (1977 – 1988), followed by economist George Vassiliou (1988-1993) and veteran statesman Glafcos Clerides (1993-2003).

Cyprus' ethnically divided communities not expect to be reunified

Cyprus' ethnically divided communities do not expect the Mediterranean island to be reunified soon.

The United Nations-commissioned poll found that 57 percent of Greek Cypriots and 70 percent of Turkish Cypriots do not see a settlement of the decades-old problem in the near future.

The island has been divided into a Greek Cypriot south and a Turkish Cypriot north since 1974.
The island has been divided into a Greek Cypriot south represented by the internationally recognized government and a Turkish Cypriot north since 1974, when Turkey invaded after a failed Athens-backed coup by supporters of union with Greece.

The poll was published on the third anniversary of separate referenda, in which Greek Cypriots overwhelmingly rejected a U.N.-brokered peace plan. Turkish Cypriots approved the plan.
Reunification efforts have made no progress since.

CYMAR Market Research and Prologue Consulting conducted the survey between Jan. 26 and Feb.19, using a sample of 1,000 Greek Cypriots and 1,000 Turkish Cypriots, as well as 350 members of both communities living in the U.N.-patrolled buffer zone that separates north from south. No margin of error was given.

The survey found that most people in both communities see day-to-day contact as essential to pave the way for reunification, but there is little cooperation between the two groups.

Ninety percent of Turkish Cypriots and 87 percent of Greek Cypriots said they have not had any substantial personal or professional contacts with each other.

"It just seems that the mechanism ... has not yet been created to effectively allow such contacts to take place," said Alexandros Lordos, a polling consultant.

He said respondents who did have contacts with members of the other community usually reported a subsequent increase in trust in that community.

Cyprus: UN poll finds majority backing in both communities for federal settlement

A federal settlement is the only proposal to resolve the Cyprus problem that enjoys majority support in both communities on the Mediterranean island, but there is widespread scepticism that any solution is imminent, according to an inter-communal survey conducted by the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

The survey of 1,000 Greek Cypriots, 1,000 Turkish Cypriots and 300 people living within the UN Buffer Zone (100 Turkish Cypriots and 250 Greek Cypriots), conducted in February and released today, found that both communities consider the UN has an important role to play and welcomed its continuing presence across the island.

But a majority of Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots believed the UN was biased in favour of the other community, and they were also wary of the true intentions and preferences of the other side.
The survey was commissioned by UNFICYP to gauge how Cypriots feel about the Mission and the rest of the UN presence on the island, and on their attitudes towards a possible peaceful resolution of the Cyprus problem.

The poll found that “a strong majority” of Greek Cypriots said a unitary State solution was satisfactory, but a similar proportion of Turkish Cypriots viewed such an outcome as unacceptable. Most Turkish Cypriots preferred a two-State arrangement, but most Greek Cypriots said they regarded that idea as untenable.

Yet a majority on both sides saw a federal settlement as “the second best option and would be prepared to accept such a constitutional framework, at the very least as a compromise solution,” according to a press release summarizing the poll results.

Supporters among Greek Cypriots (65 per cent) tended to regard a federal settlement as “tolerable,” whereas Turkish Cypriot supporters (70 per cent) usually viewed it as “satisfactory.” Only small minorities of either community believed the status quo was the answer.

“Rejecting a federal solution out of hand, under any circumstances and regardless of the specific plan, is not a majority viewpoint in either community,” the release added.

The survey showed that a majority on both sides did not want UNFICYP to withdraw before the restoration of normal conditions and a peaceful settlement, but that they also wanted the UN to do more to understand Cypriot concerns across the island.

Examples proposed included outreach programmes to villages and towns, in-depth research into the concerns of Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots and an interactive website promoting inter-communal dialogue.

Contacts between the two communities are seen as essential to improving levels of trust and to “pave the way for a united Cyprus, and there is approval for those who reach out the other community through such contacts,” the release noted. But despite this goodwill, few of those interviewed were actually involved in such contacts.

The opening of crossing points may also not have created much of a boost in confidence, the poll found, with only one in 10 Greek Cypriots crossing regularly and 45 per cent of Turkish Cypriots, with many on both sides saying the trips had not enhanced their views of their neighbours.

Cyprus government condemns Armenian genocide

The Cyprus government condemns the Armenian genocide, noting that the modern Turkey, which aspires to join the EU, ought to recognize the dark pages of its history and apologize for the crimes of its sinful past.

The statement was made on Tuesday by Government Spokesman Christodoulos Pashiardis who added that “as 92 years are being marked since the genocide of Armenians by Turks, the Cyprus government condemns this abhorring crime and takes part in the national mourning of the friendly people of Armenia and especially the Armenian community in Cyprus”.

He said that the “refusal of Turkey to recognize the massacre of one and a half million Armenians constitutes “a ridicule and distortion of history”.Pashiardis pointed out that “modern Turkey, which aspires and pursues membership in the EU, ought to recognize the dark pages of its history and apologise for the crimes of its sinful past”.“The genocide of the Armenian people is not a crime that can be wiped down with the violent abuse of the historical truth by guilty Turkey”, the Spokesman added.

Can Cyprus reunify?

By Geoff Hoon

Most British people know Cyprus from their vacations. Travel brochures describe "an island of legends that basks in the light of the warm Mediterranean sun". But many visitors will be surprised to find an island divided and a capital city, Nicosia, split in two. Cyprus is not written about in our newspapers so much these days. Indeed, in many ways it is a forgotten island.

Cyprus has made huge progress in recent years, especially with the achievement of membership of the European Union in 2004. It is no exaggeration to say this was largely thanks to the determined efforts of Robin Cook during his period as foreign secretary.

I witnessed Robin's commitment myself when I worked with him as a minister in the Foreign Office in the late 1990s. As he said "it would have been much better if Cyprus were brought into the European Union as a united island rather than divided" but he was extremely proud that it was Britain's voice that was instrumental in ensuring that reunification was regarded as desirable "but was not an essential condition for its membership of the European Union".

Yesterday I made my first visit to Cyprus as Europe minister. Sadly, relations between our two nations are not as close as in Robin's time. There is a suspicion from some of our support concerning the accession of Turkey to the EU.

This is unfortunate, not just because of the commitment of senior figures in the Labour government, from Robin Cook to John Prescott, in securing Cyprus's place in the EU, but also because of the huge importance of Cyprus to the United Kingdom.

There are huge bilateral links between our two nations. Not only is Cyprus a leading tourist destination for Britons, over 300,000 Cypriots live in the UK, making a valuable contribution in all spheres of life.

Like Robin, my professional objective, as well as my political and personal instinct, is to help Cyprus to reunite. The status quo on the island, where blue-bereted United Nations peacekeepers still patrol the divide, is simply not acceptable. The British government has consistently supported the efforts of the UN to broker a solution, using what influence we have to keep the sides talking at all costs. As conflicts around the world have taught us, dialogue is the first step to a peaceful solution. But there is only going to be progress if both sides come together to negotiate.

And while the British government can encourage this, I believe a much more powerful voice comes from the many Cypriots living in the United Kingdom. I have met many representatives from both communities. Now more than ever we need them to speak up and urge their compatriots back home to seek a solution.

But despite its importance, the focus of my visit to Cyprus this week will not be reunification. As the EU celebrates its 50th birthday, I will be strengthening the links that we have with this important member state. Government to government cooperation is already wide-ranging, with partnerships on a spectrum of issues from counter-terrorism to football hooliganism. Nearly three years of shared European membership has helped us to forge even closer links, not only at a political level, but also through school twinning projects and cultural interchange.

Cyprus is an island of huge strategic importance. It is an island with the closest links to the United Kingdom. There is a close attachment across the Labour movement. When Robin Cook died no country felt his loss more than Cyprus. The Cypriot president, Tassos Papadopoulos, described him as "an outspoken advocate for a just and viable settlement of the Cyprus problem". Friends of Cyprus from across both divides need to work together to make Robin Cook's dream of reunification a reality.

Swiss President briefed on Cyprus issue

Cyprus' new Ambassador to Switzerland Athena Mavronicolas has briefed the President of the Swiss Confederation Micheline Calmy Rey about the current situation in Cyprus.

She also discussed bilateral relations with the Swiss President, an official press release, issued here today, said.

The discussions took place during a ceremony for the presentation of the credentials of Cyprus' new Ambassador to Switzerland, based in Rome, at the Federal Palace of Vern.

The President of the Swiss Confederation expressed hope for a successful outcome in the efforts of the Cyprus government towards a solution of the Cyprus issue.

Mavronicolas discussed economic assistance which Switzerland is prepared to offer to new members of the European Union, including Cyprus.

Turkey’s policy on Cyprus should change for a speedy settlement, says Spokesman

What is important for Cyprus is Turkey’s policy and the need to change this policy so that efforts for a functional and viable solution to the Cyprus problem will speed up, said here Tuesday Government Spokesman Christodoulos Pashiardis.

Commenting on the announcement that Turkey's ruling AK Party picked Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as its presidential candidate on Tuesday, Pashiardis said that “what is important for us is Turkey’s policy on Cyprus and the need to change this policy to speed up efforts to find a functional and viable solution”.

“The Turkish President can contribute towards this direction”, Pashiardis added.

Greek-Turkish Military Altercations Expected as Cyprus Readies for Offshore Oil Exploration

A major military face-off between perennial rivals Greece and Turkey is looming, motivated by Turkish alarm over the imminent plan of the Cypriot government to explore for oil in the Mediterranean Sea. The showdown will reach a peak sometime between May 20-July 20, according to Greek media reports, now confirmed by high-level sources in Athens and in Western Europe.

This violence will most likely come about through yet another provocative encounter between military aircraft over the eastern Aegean, as was witnessed with last summer’s F-16 collision that left one Greek pilot dead. The Greek fighter planes encountered Turkish planes near the island of Karpathos, well within Greek territory. The majority of simulated dogfights, which take place on a regular basis and have one positive result (of giving the pilots some real-life training), however take place closer to Turkey and the Aegean coast where several islets disputed by Turkey lie.

The closest Greece and Turkey came to war was a decade ago, over such an islet near Kalymnos.
The summer 2006 altercation occurred, Greek media widely speculated, because of intense Turkish interest in state-of-the-art Russian-made mobile anti-aircraft units in place in the Lassithi prefecture of eastern Crete. This suspicion was quickly confirmed by military sources in Athens. The question now is whether Turkey’s level of interest would exceed that of last year, in relation to the emerging situation in Cyprus.

Nicosia’s bold initiative to explore for oil, with the assistance of multinational oil companies, has brought the Turkish military to near-panic mode. A successful find and subsequent investment would dramatically increase the Greek Cypriot government’s foreign support and thus bargaining position with Turkey over the divided island.

Cyprus’ geopolitical value, even preliminary to hydrocarbons, lies in its strategic location, between three continents, near Israel and a stop en route to Suez. During the Israeli-Lebanese conflict last summer, thousands of foreign tourists, including many Americans, were evacuated quickly to Cyprus- a fact gratefully acknowledged by the US government when it sent a naval vessel to Cyprus on a goodwill visit meant to recognize the Cypriot contribution to securing the safety of Americans during the fighting.

Until now, the international community has tended to view Cyprus only in terms of its perennial security problem, resulting from the 1974 Turkish invasion and occupation, in an operation called Attila (1 &2). However, 2007 looks likely to be the year in which Cyprus takes the first steps towards becoming an energy hub- if the government’s plan to proceed in exploiting the rumored hydrocarbon reservoirs deep beneath the Eastern Mediterranean Basin are allowed to go on unimpeded by military provocations further north.

In December 2006, the first media reports came out of Nicosia revealing the intention of the Cypriot government to search for oil assumed to be found offshore, southwest of the island. Moreover, Cyprus then signed agreements with Lebanon and Egypt so as to draw lines in relation with the zones allocated to each state.

In late January 2007, the Turkish leader of the self-proclaimed Republic of North Cyprus, Mehmet Ali Talat, stated that an unpredictable situation might occur should Cyprus go along with its initial plan. Basically, the Turkish leader formulated a threatening scenario backed by the government of Turkey, considering that it was soon followed by a warning from Ankara to Beirut and Cairo not to proceed along with Cyprus in exploiting oil deposits in the region.

When the Cypriot announcement was made, Turkey seemed to be caught off-guard diplomatically; it had assumed Cyprus would not be able to initiate such a dramatic decision that could alter the political realities in the Eastern Mediterranean should oil is found. Greece has not voiced full support for Cyprus yet, deciding not to inflame the already delicate Greek-Turkish relations.
However, behind the scenes the Greeks are taking great care to ensure that the situation does not escalate, and if it does, that the military is prepared.

According to information received by Balkanalysis.com from high-level military sources in Athens, the Greek army went on an emergency footing on April 7, in anticipation of a new Turkish provocation in the eastern Aegean. This source also cited the period of greatest danger as being roughly between May 20-July 20.

Among the likely spillover effects of this will be to dramatically alter the discussions that will take place on the sidelines at NATO’s upcoming round-table discussion, set for late June in Ohrid. While most of the private discussion between officials (delegations are expected from dozens of countries) is expected to center around NATO enlargement, energy security and the Kosovo issue, a breakout of hostilities between Greece and Turkey would put these issues on the back burner, at least temporarily.

For the first time in its history, perhaps, Cyprus is with the oil issue formatting a policy that will empower its diplomatic arsenal without having to rely on Athens. Of course, this does not mean any breakdown in the traditional alliance and common national bonds between these two states populated by the same nation. What is essential, though, is that the entrance of Cyprus into the EU, and the overall economic dynamism of the island have enabled it to become more resilient in promoting its national interests.

A first consequence of this new confidence would be the ability of Greece to concentrate its efforts around Greek-Turkish relations in a more advantageous level than before. Simply put, if Cyprus is strong enough to look after itself on its own, Greece will have more resources to spare on other fronts relating to Turkish territorial claims that have led the two countries towards conflict, as was seen in 1955, 1964, 1974, 1987 and 1996.

Following the oil announcement, the Turkish Navy reportedly patrolled the area in question, even though no concrete date on its activities could be found. During the past few months, quite a few Turkish analysts, journalists and public officials have proclaimed a looming crisis in case Cyprus becomes an oil-producing country, thus creating the perfect framework by which the European Union could accuse Ankara of not conforming to European norms. This would, of course, hinder Turkey’s ability to seek an eventual entrance in the union

On the purely business level, the possibility of oil underneath Mediterranean Sea in a period of global concern on energy security; has attracted the attention of most of the world’s oil multinationals. Large oil companies from the USA, Russia, UK and China, Norway, France and Germany seem to be interested in investing in the assumed hydrocarbon reserves offshore Cyprus.

Despite Turkish opposition, Cyprus has already begun the process of initiating a bidding procedure for the aforementioned oil fields. 11 areas off of southern Cyprus will be the first where the tests for oil will begin. The total surface area is around 70,000 sq. km, and there are also good indications of discovering natural gas as well. French consultants employed by the Cypriot government have already stated that at depths in excess of 3,000 meters there is also a high probability of discovering gas fields as well.

Cyprus has already stated that it will issue three types of permit in relation to the oil fields. The first will be for tests covering a one-year time-frame, the second for three years and lastly a 25-year development license according to which the companies will be able to produce and process oil and gas. As part of its marketing endeavors, from now until mid-July (when the first permits are set to be issued), the Cypriot government plans to organize trips across the major oil capitals of the world in order to market the new riches of the island to prospective investors.

The Americans, who traditionally have placed more weight on the special relationship with Ankara than with Nicosia, have expressed a neutral position and the US Ambassador to Cyprus, Ronald Schilcher, has stated in Cypriot media that it is a sovereign right of the Cypriot Republic to conduct any kind or research on its territory.

Currently, American interests dictate a wide interest in every new oil field that could produce adequate amounts of oil, so as to secure the West from either Russian or Arab control. Therefore, if Cyprus is a country abundant with that resource, the US would be more than happy to support its initiatives and of course to gain a percentage through their own oil conglomerates. Cyprus could thus be considered to be traveling a course towards a NATO entrance, since the alliance has apparently been reincarnated as an armed safeguard of Western ‘energy security’ vis-a-vis Russia.

What is most interesting is the absence of any Greek interference during the past few months, even at the level of mere rhetoric, against Turkey’s aggressive threats to Cyprus. Even though there are still quite a few incidents between Greece and Turkey due to continuous airspace violations by Turkish fighter planes, and a sense of stressful relations between the two states; Greece did not take advantage of this situation to bash Ankara in Brussels, or to protest before the international community about Turkey’s hardline attitude against Cyprus (a nation with 1/100 of its population).

Most probably, the Greek government wants to let international interests make their intentions known – a process that will unfold over the coming months and until July – before it makes a statement. That is, unless the anticipated showdown in the Aegean occurs, and forces Athens’ hand in advance.

Western consulting firms to the oil and gas industries have had their hands full with the Cyprus dossier for the past several months. According to one consultant closely related with the American intelligence establishment, “some of the companies interested are leery about the risk of potential violence, which we have been aware of and relayed to them.” And so, the source states, oil interests find themselves trying to decide whether the anticipated riches outweigh the reward.
Relevant to this is another side effect of possible Turkish aggression, about which the Greek intelligence services are not entirely unaware.

That is the specter, on the other side of the Turkish frontier, of an increase in activity from the Kurdish PKK and intensified activity on the Turkish-Iraqi border. Whether such activity could be orchestrated by Greece as a defensive mechanism, or materialize simply as a Kurdish tactic for taking advantage of a moment when Turkey’s military is looking westward rather than eastward, is unclear (Greece did, of course, support former PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan surreptitiously in the 1990’s). In either case, however, it is likely that in the case of violence in the Aegean within the May 20-July 20 time-frame, Kurdish insurgents will try to take advantage of the situation and fighting in eastern Turkey is expected to increase.

Turkey indeed feels immensely pressed by four very challenging factors. Firstly, the Kurdish affair interrelates with American and Israeli strategies in the Middle East, and Turkey finds itself in a most unpleasant situation, since its interests do not harmonize with those of these others. Further applicable issues show why the industry analysts and defense experts on the region are concerned about the potentially chaotic and unpredictable outcome of the next few months in Turkey.

A declaration of an independent Kurdish state that would act as a bulwark against Iran and Syria and, most importantly, become a staunch ally in the post –Saddam Iraq for the Americans would be a disaster of staggering proportions for internal Turkish politics. Roughly 20 percent of Turkish citizens have Kurdish descent and the prospect of a future disintegration of the southeastern provinces could not be excluded in such a case. Secondly, the Presidential elections in Turkey have once again revealed the wide chasm between the secular Kemalist classes against the populist Islamist one associated with the AK Party of Prime Minister (and presidential candidate) Erdogan.

Further, the always doubtful prospect of successful accession negotiations between Brussels and Turkey is fading, and with it the major justification from the Turkish political class for internal ‘pro-Western’ reforms. Since the Cypriot initiative to search for oil might result in a diminishing of Turkish influence in the East Mediterranean and promote Cyprus to the status of an oil-rich country protected by the all-powerful global corporations, Turkey is understandably nervous about the future of an island which its generals like to refer to as a ‘dagger pointed at the heart of Turkey.’
Related Issues: the French, British and Germans Eye Cyprus

In 1960, with the creation of an independent Cypriot Republic, Greece, Turkey and the UK were identified as the guarantors of the island, and under that pretext Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974. Since then Cyprus has developed strong relations with the USA, Russia and surprisingly, over the past few months with France. The war in Lebanon last summer gave a tremendous boost to the bilateral relations of the two states.

France is the guarantor power for the Lebanese Maronites and has played over the centuries an active role in the region. Cyprus was an integral base that secured the evacuation of more than 150,000 refugees from the war-torn area, which led to a program of cooperation with Paris on a technical and military level (on a symbolic level, perhaps this new friendship was hinted at it when Cyprus selected a French-language song as its Eurovision entry for 2007).

In late February 2007, the two states signed a defense agreement that is of profound importance for all countries involved in the Cyprus quagmire. The agreement details exchange of information, military training, joint naval exercises and cooperation in S&R missions as well as with issues concerning illegal immigration, terrorism and organized crime. Furthermore, France was allowed to use the military base situated in Pafos in order to deploy its naval and air force units when necessary.

The Cypriot minister of foreign affairs has noted that “the crisis in Lebanon gave both countries the chance to cooperate in the military field with benefits not only for both countries but mainly for Middle East countries. I wish and hope that just as Cyprus proved to be a factor of stability in the Middle East region, the solution to the Cyprus problem and Cyprus’ reunification will prove that Cyprus can, be reunited with the cooperation of all partners such as France, help in peace and stability in the region.”

A key factor now, therefore, is the likely extension of French influence in the most strategically critical state in the region, and the results that this will have for the position of the United Kingdom. In comparison to Greece and Turkey; the UK does not have ethnological or historical ties with Cyprus, apart from its 80-year stint as a colonial (and unpopular) administrative power. A French-British rivalry played out in Cyprus over the coming years thus becomes likely. And this will involve some regional alliances and antipathies as well.

Turkey, for its part, has long experienced strained relations with Paris due to the latter’s suspiciously timely decision to recognize the so-called Armenian genocide of 1915-1921 The French electorate is also rather opposed to Turkish EU membership and a Sarkozy presidential victory could further chill relations. Through Cyprus, the French have finally found a way to expand their influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, with or without Turkish assistance. The British, by contrast, have been far more conciliatory to the Turks, with the Blair government one of the strongest supporters of Turkish EU membership.

April 23rd tension in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

Tension between civilians and military officers has affected April 23rd celebrations in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

Tension between civilian authorities and military officials have affected the ceremonies planned for April 23rd Children's Day.The Ministry of Education decided to celebrate this year's April 23rd as a 'feast', limiting military parades.

Military authorities have organized 'alternative events' to celebrate the 87th anniversary of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey. Military officials have blamed civil authorities for 'abolishing the significance of April 23rd.'

Papadopoulos' talk of defending Hellenism is alienating Turkish Cypriots

AS PRESIDENT of the Republic of Cyprus, Tassos Papadopoulos should be doing all he can to promote the Cypriot nation and the unifying ideology of Pan-Cypriotism as the path to social reunification.

Regrettably, drunk on the idea of Hellenism the Cypriot President is far too busy metamorphasising Alexander the Great, while sending out contradictory messages to the rest of the world and alienating thousands of Turkish Cypriots. In traditional democracies, the role of the President is above partisan politics, beyond inter-community disputes; the President is a representative figure who strives to represent all his citizens, from every political affiliation and religious-linguistic group. But clearly the mind of the President of the Republic of Cyprus was elsewhere on July 14, 2006, while visiting Greece. In his speech to the Greek head of state, President Papadopoulos stated loyally:

“We [Cyprus] do not want, nor do we seek to transfer the weight of our problems to the shoulders of Greece. But, we do want our Greek brothers to realise that we in Cyprus, as we resist Turkish expansionism and fight for the national and physical survival of Greek Hellenism, are forward defenders of Hellenism in its widest meaning and dimension.''

Like thousands of Turkish Cypriots, Maronites, Latins and Armenian Cypriots, as well as thousands of Greek Cypriots who believe themselves to be Cypriot above all, I could hardly believe my ears. Greek brothers? Fighting for the survival of Hellenism? Does the Cypriot President who claims legal and moral justification for this very title abroad forget which country he is the head of state of? Did he not imagine how his irresponsible message could be interpreted by Cyprus’ Turkish Cypriots and other religious-linguistic groups?But it was not the first of such ill-chosen terminology.

President Papadopoulos later asked a crowd of Greek Cypriots in Nicosia to “judge” if they were helping the “Hellenism of Cyprus”. Helping Hellenism seems to be a priority in his presidency, where simultaneously he tries to convince Turkish Cypriots that the days of his involvement with the Akritas Plan are over. Perhaps President Papadopoulos needs to be informed that the Republic of Cyprus is not a carbon copy of Greece. It is a Cypriot state co-founded by Turkish Cypriots, where Turkish is one of its official languages and where no less than 26 per cent of the population of Cyprus are Turkish Cypriots. It is a country that has historic ties not only with Greece and Turkey but with the entire Near East. It is a land where Christianity and Islam are the two main religions, and where its flag under which his cries for Hellenism are echoed was designed by a Muslim Turkish Cypriot.

To those who proudly claim to have voted ‘OXI’ under the false notion that they were preventing Cyprus from becoming a Greco-Turkish country, it is time to wake up and smell the coffee; Cyprus is and will always be the home of Turkish Cypriots, and Cypriot culture will always have a generous Turkish ingredient among many others, whether they can stomach it or not.

As a proud citizen of this state, I ask President Papadopoulos who on earth has given him the right to pronounce himself the defender of Hellenism while using the title President of Cyprus? Where in the 1960 constitution is this right afforded to the head of state? I ask President Papadopoulos, is he representing an electorate of an Athenian suburb or bi-lingual Cyprus? For me as a citizen of the Republic, it is completely unacceptable and scandalous that my head of state carries on presenting himself to the world as Cypriot President while manipulating this title to lend support to the nationalism of another country! It is equally unacceptable to try to justify this action by pointing the finger across the Wall of Shame and measuring one’s own actions by those of others.

As a Cypriot President, Mr Papadopoulos does not have the luxury of Mr Talat to define himself as solely the leader of one community.Alienating Turkish Cypriots and no doubt thousands of Maronites, Armenians and Latin Cypriots with his Greek nationalist rhetoric, the President is actually helping to preserve the status quo and pouring the cement that will finalise irreversible partition.

Despite tears shed for Hellenism, the President faces a huge responsibility on his shoulders as a Cypriot head of state. Every time he forgets his role, Turkish Cypriots who are pitting themselves against their own hardened nationalists, some risking their lives, receive a big slap in the face. Their timely and commendable efforts to build a better future for all Cypriots are shattered by a President who cannot separate himself from Greek nationalism. Inevitably, this leads many Turkish Cypriots out of frustration and humiliation to give up their struggle.

The President of Cyprus should pay greater attention to avoid alienating Turkish Cypriots. His hand of friendship should not be as that of a negotiator trying to get Turkish Cypriots to a table, where he will try to bargain with them, but as a President reaching out to his citizens, and inviting them to rejoin other Cypriots in the Republic and its institutions, regardless of when a political settlement will take place. After all, are Turkish Cypriot rights as citizens of the Republic of Cyprus held hostage to a political settlement? Whether there is a political settlement at present or not, there is no justification for President Papadopoulos to manipulate powers entrusted to him.

As President, if Mr Papadopoulos genuinely believes in reconciliation, peace and reunification, he must be prepared to manifest his sincerity by being more representative of his people, otherwise his presidential legacy will be remembered for entrenching partition and his messages of defending Hellenism will be construed by the entire world to mean that the Republic of Cyprus is nothing more than a Greek Republic of Cyprus. A presidential balancing act between being a Greek Cypriot leader and “President of all Cypriots” is a dangerous game, particularly if one tries to defend Hellenism while promoting Cypriot unity. Naturally, when Hellenism is promoted in Cyprus, Pan-Turkism and a new Turkish Cypriot nationalism are quickly formed to counter it.

As President of Cyprus, Mr Papadopoulos has to embrace the full diversity of Cyprus, even while standing in front of the Greek head of state. And if the President still feels the needs to be patriotic, then he should opt for Cypriotism, a more inclusive ideology which captures all the communities of Cyprus.

Alkan Chaglar is editor of Toplum Postasi (Community Post), the newspaper for the Turkish Cypriot community in London
Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2007

Britain says it does not owe Cyprus money for Bases

THE BRITISH government responded to a House of Representatives resolution asking for the British Bases to pay up, saying that they had already fulfilled their financial obligations to Cyprus.

The resolution that was unanimously approved by the plenum on Thursday night called on the Republic to demand from the British government that they pay back all the money they owe Cyprus regarding the Bases.An official from the British Foreign Ministry said yesterday that they was aware of the resolution, but claimed that it was not an issue for Britain.

“We have taken it into account but we are satisfied that we have fulfilled our financial obligations to the Republic of Cyprus,” he told the Cyprus News Agency (CNA).

House President Demetris Christofias followed the resolution with a call for the dissolution of the Bases and called for an indepth study into their status by legal experts since the Bases were also outside the EU. President Tassos Papadopoulos responded to the resolution on Friday by saying that the issue of the Bases is not as straight-forward as many people may think.

“The issue of the financial obligations for the use of territory of the Cypriot Republic is a difficult and complicated matter in all legal, practical and political aspects,” he said.

“There have been a number of studies from legal experts that have looked into the matter in the past. I am not sure everyone knows the implications of this financial dispute that may seem simple to others.”

The debate over the SBAs has re-surfaced mainly due to last week’s arrest of anti-British MEP Marios Matsakis, in front of a delegation of the European Parliament

No let-up in Cyprus’ tourism slide

British market is in the doldrums

Figures for tourism arrivals in March confirm that there has been no let-up in the relentless slide of Cyprus’ tourism industry this year, with figures showing arrivals down 6.1% year on year in March to 104,316 people. This brought the cumulative fall in the first quarter of 2007 to 3.9%.

And this time, you can’t blame the drop on Easter, as the feast was celebrated in April in 2006 and April 2007 in both the Western and the Orthodox churches.

The main cause of the poor figures is a steep drop in the number of arrivals from the UK, down 14.1% in the first quarter compared with the same period of 2006.

The British market, which accounts for more than half of arrivals in Cyprus, has been hit by a combination of rising interest rates at home, which is painful for highly indebted home-owners, as well as much higher airfares to Cyprus as a result of continued high energy prices and what seems to be a non-stop series of hikes in airport charges.

Add to that a fall in capacity owing to the demise of ajet, which is only slowly being filled by newcomers such as Monarch, and it is no surprise that arrivals from this key market are down.
The outlook for British arrivals for the rest of the year is not good either, as another interest-rate increase from the Bank of England expected next month will eat into disposable income.

From Russia (and Greece and Sweden) with love

Amid all the gloom there is some good news, however. Arrivals from Russia were up 18.4% year on year in the first quarter to 6,559, thanks no doubt to the government’s sustained effort to improve visa turnaround times.

The government has also pledged to issue multiple entry visas for Russian nationals within 24 hours.

Arrivals from Greece have also risen strongly, one hopes not only because of the long-running strike at the universities. Arrivals from Greece rose by 14.2% year on year to 24,239 in the first quarter.

The Swedish market has also grown strongly this year, with arrivals up by 12% year on year in the first quarter, thanks perhaps to a krona that appreciated in 2006.

Cyprus calls on Britain to pay for military bases

The Cypriot House of Representatives adopted unanimously on Thursday a resolution calling on the government to make all necessary representations towards Britain to pay the sums it owes to the Republic of Cyprus, hoping that the island will in the future be rid of any military presence or bases on its territory.

The resolution was adopted after the House plenary discussion of the issue ''The financial obligations of Britain towards the Republic of Cyprus, as these emanate from the Treaty of Establishment, and the necessity to take every available legal measure to claim that owing.

''The House says that it will monitor the issue closely and requests that the government ''examines the further relevant conducts and taking measures, in case of a continuation of the refusal of the British authorities to respond to their obligations.'' With its resolution, the House ''condemns especially the recent case of the illegal arrest and detention, by the authorities of the British Bases, of Cypriot MEP Marios Matsakis, who was in Cyprus on a mission of the European Parliament.''

This arrest constitutes ''contempt of the European Parliament and the EU institutions in general,'' it says. The House points out that ''many other actions of the British authorities, in relation to the operation of their Bases in Cyprus, have repeatedly provoked the feelings of the Cypriot people.

''It reiterates that the rights of Britain, emanating from the Treaty of Establishment, are remnants of colonisation in a former colony and have been considered as such by the UN.The House adds that the Treaty also provides for obligations, among which the payment of sums as economic aid to the Republic of Cyprus and as compensation for the facilities Britain enjoys.

In the resolution, the House points out that since 1965, Britain has not paid any amount to the Republic of Cyprus, adding that this failure to pay ''amounts to a violation of the Treaty of Establishment on behalf of the British side.''

House President Demetris Christofias, speaking at the plenary session, expressed the general wish of all political forces for the dissolution of the British Bases in Cyprus, adding that the issue must be examined in depth and be decided on collectively.''We do not exercise sovereignty on the Bases' territory. We question, rightly, the sovereignty on behalf of the British on the Bases,'' he added.

Christofias said ''we certainly want the dissolution of the Bases, but how and when and the rest we must look into responsibly, for the financial issues and everything, and for the issue of sovereignty, because we do not exercise sovereignty, they claim that they have the sovereignty, so these things must be clarified.''President of Social Democrats EDEK Yiannakis Omirou, who proposed the discussion of the subject, said the issue of the British behaviour towards Cyprus and mainly the violation of explicit contractual obligations is today a major foreign policy matter, linked directly to the struggle for national survival.Britain has retained two sovereign military bases in Cyprus since the island gained its independence from British colonial rule in 1960.

Cyprus settlement absolute priority, says Tassos

Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos assured on Thursday that a solution of the Cyprus problem constitutes an absolute priority because time passes by at the expense of reunification and the wounds get deeper, adding that a settlement must lead to the real reunification of Cyprus, the society, the economy, the territory and its institutions, based on UN Security Council resolutions and on the principles upon which the EU was founded.

In a speech at the state banquet in honour of President of Slovakia Ivan Gasparovic, President Papadopoulos said the solution must unite, be functional and just and prescribe a European future, common for Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, noting that the government remains committed to the immediate implementation of the July 8 agreement and that the delay and lack of progress in this direction is a cause of particular worry and concern as to the kind of solution that is truly sought by the other side.

President Papadopoulos said the talks he had earlier with Gasparovic ''have confirmed the high level of our bilateral relations which develop within a climate of appreciation, respect and trust for the mutual interest of our two peoples and our countries.''

''I am, therefore, optimistic and look forward to the further enhancement of our cooperation, both on the bilateral level and within the framework of the EU as well as in other international fora, because I believe that the potential for strengthening our bonds of cooperation is unlimited when this is governed by good will and constructive spirit,'' he added.

He expressed satisfaction that the Slovakian President included in his accompanying delegation a number of distinguished businessmen from Slovakia, with special interest and inclination in investigating the possibilities to start business and cooperation in various fields of the economy, such as trade and services.President Papadopoulos noted that ''Cyprus has laid strong foundations and today can be proud of her transformation into a contemporary International Services Centre and a base for investment activities in the wider region of the Middle East,'' adding that the island has also managed to win the modern traveller, tourist, sightseer and businessman, by offering high quality tourist infrastructure, hospitality, sun, sea, archaeological treasures and a century-old cultural tradition.

''Consequently, there is room as well as challenges for cooperation in the field of tourism as well and it is up to the businessmen to seize the opportunities which lay ahead,'' he pointed out.

President Papadopoulos also said that Slovakia and Cyprus are related through historic bilateral bonds and bonds of coexistence and cooperation in the big European family, and expressed gratitude for the Slovakian contribution ''through the active presence of her citizens, in the military contingent of the United Nations Peace Keeping Force in Cyprus.''

''We are also grateful for the fact that your country, as a non permanent member of the UN Security Council, did not fail to place Cyprus in her priorities. At the same time we do not forget Slovakia's steadfast support so far within the Security Council,'' he added.

Cyprus, which joined the EU in 2004, has been divided since 1974, when Turkey invaded and occupied its northern third.President Papadopoulos and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat agreed on 8 July 2006, during a meeting in Nicosia in the presence of UN official Ibrahim Gambari, to begin a process of bicommunal discussions on issues that affect the day-to-day life of the people and concurrently those that concern substantive issues, both contributing to a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem.

Tackling the ever greater rise in crime

FIGURES from the Justice Ministry this month have shown a new rise in the number of serious crimes committed in Cyprus, from 7,250 in 2005, to 7,955 last year, an increase of almost 10 per cent.

Of even more concern is the longer-term trend, which shows an increase in serious crime of 67 per cent since 2002. In 2002, there were just two murders, compared to 14 last year, 131 rapes compared to 30 last year, 1,228 break-ins to 3,082 in 2006, 948 thefts to 1,618… The list goes on.

Indeed, we don’t need government statistics to tell us how much the situation has changed. Every news bulletin (once the Cyprus problem has received its due attention) is a catalogue of crime and delinquency. People feel crime in a way they never did before. Everyone today has either been a victim of crime or knows someone who has, whereas in years past it was something inconceivable.

Who in the cities today remembers the days when they used to leave their front doors open and the car keys on the ignition? Nowadays, most new houses are wired up with sophisticated alarm systems, while the sound of a car alarm going off is likely to be for real, coming from down the street, rather than some fictional American crime series on TV.

Police are struggling to cope, but must be congratulated for what they do achieve. Police in Cyprus last year solved 49.92 per cent of all serious crimes committed on the island, up slightly from the previous year, though down from the impressive 73.61 per cent in 2002. But to be appreciated, the figures need to be compared to those of other forces overseas.

Clear-up rates in the UK are about 25 per cent (falling to around 14 per cent in the London area), while in the United States only about one in five crimes gets solved. The police’s efforts also need to be understood in the perspective of the means at their disposal. Crime has almost doubled in the past four years, yet their resources and manpower have not kept pace. And this is one of the key problems that Cyprus has to tackle in the coming years.

Social change and greater prosperity have vastly improved the lives and opportunities of most people in this country. But they are also bringing with them the same problems that are the bane of every Western society, an explosive cocktail of family breakdown, growing delinquency and drugs – indeed Cyprus now has one of the highest rates of drug death per inhabitant in Europe, where once drugs were limited to a mere handful of cannabis smokers.

At the same time, the whole infrastructure of the state remains set in a model that dates back to the days when crime was almost non-existent, when extended families cast their protective net to ensure a soft landing to anyone going through a tough time. In the circumstances, departments like the social services, the prisons and the police are battling with means totally inadequate for the job at hand.

If we are to maintain the relative safety that we still feel, and stop our cities spiralling into the kind of fear that is normal in many cities across the industrialised world, we urgently need to give greater resources to the services that are on the front line of this battle. This means more personnel and equipment, but it also means continuous training to understand the new situation we are facing, it means more prison spaces, but it also means a far greater availability of drug rehabilitation treatment, both inside the penal system and out in society.Indeed, the response cannot be merely punitive.

As a society, we have to address the issue of social delinquency that leads to crime. Many suburbs of Nicosia and Limassol have become the breeding ground for juvenile delinquency and anti-social behaviour. Graffiti, vandalism and harassment are all too common. By allowing this situation to develop, we are failing our children.

Today, Cyprus enjoys almost zero unemployment, but if tomorrow, the economy slows down and unemployment rises to 10, 15 or 20 per cent, as is the case elsewhere in Europe, Cyprus will be facing an explosive situation.

This is why the government needs to act fast, not just be adopting new laws, but by being present on the ground. Local authorities need to be given the resources to develop networks on the ground, employing young people from the community who provide a contact point for the community through youth and neighbourhood centres.We still can have a head start on the situation.

We know the trends from Greece and elsewhere, the dangers that lie ahead. So far, we have been reacting to crime. Let us use the opportunity we still have to pre-empt it, by targeting the social exclusion that breeds the criminals of tomorrow.

Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2007

Ioannis Kasoulides: I’m here to listen

IT’S NOT every day that someone has the chance of asking, “Why do you want to be President?”, and it’s not every day a possible candidate responds that it’s not necessarily an ambition of theirs.

Of course, former Government Spokesman, Foreign Minister and currently an MEP from opposition DISY, Ioannis Kasoulides has not decided yet whether he will run for President in next year’s elections. At the moment, he is out and about taking the pulse of the people before he makes his final decision next month.

“I don’t consider what I am doing now as the fulfillment of an ambition. Neither do I believe this is what matters now regarding Cyprus. The big question is whether the people, the ordinary people and not the political parties, do have the will for another road that Cyprus should take, whether the time has come to change gear from the post colonial eastern Cyprus towards a more modern European state,” he said.

Kasoulides envisages a country that will have a new strategy, both regarding the national issue and a country that carries out the necessary reforms towards a modern European state.Indeed, Kasoulides possesses a modern ‘European’ outlook, but also considers himself a listener rather than a speaker. That is why he has been taking several months to sit down with the electorate to learn what they want.He strongly believes that it’s not a matter of whether he will be the ‘DISY candidate’ running against Papadopoulos for power, but a matter of what, not who, the people want as their President.

He sees the presidency a “direct contract” between the people and the person they have chosen to carry out a policy on their behalf. He also sees this as his biggest challenge.Kasoulides said the presidential system itself was about the president and the people, and not about political parties.

“If it’s a fight between three political parties on the one hand and one political party on the other, then we go away from the true presidential system and we create a confused parliamentary and presidential system, which – to my mind – is something wrong. So the challenge is to bring the presidential system back to its purity and originality,” he said.

His current consultations with the public are designed, he said, to give people the chance to speak.

“I want more to listen than speak, which will lead me to answer this question: Can I be the challenger of President Papadopoulos in the choice of another road? I want this issue to be debated in depth between myself and the citizens before coming to a conclusion.”

It is easy to say that a president should be independent of the interests of political parties and be a ‘man of the people’ but in the real world it rarely works that way, unless a country is being run by a dictator. Whether they like it or not, democratically elected presidents are also an inherent part of the political system that spawned them and more often than not get sucked back in despite their declarations about fighting the system.

Kasoulides believes it is not a matter of “fighting the system” or for a candidate to reject his party history, but he also believes a President should not have to make decisions based on the interests of a party.

“That is where we are now witnessing a wrong system of governing, where for instance a President who is elected directly by the people is admonished because he has not taken the views of the political parties regarding such and such an appointment, or when in order to reshuffle he has to get the permission of the leaders of the political parties that support him. This is wrong as far as the presidential system is concerned. Political parties should not interfere,” he said; their place was in the legislative branch.“The easy answer is to say, we will fight the system, but I’m not saying this.”

Kasoulides said his approach would be to change the system. “From talking to people, there is a great demand to change the system. What you need is the political will, and feeling that you have the mandate from the people to do it,” he added. One of the ways to start this would be reforming the public service, which is something he said he tried to do on a small scale when he was Foreign Minister.

“I worked in such a way to boost morale. By boosting morale and convincing them [public servants] that this way would bring more rewards from the public you’re serving, from society, from your ministry, your government. I think this is the way to go forward on this issue,” he said.

“I don’t think that running the government in an authoritarian way, as it happens now I’m afraid, when from the minister downwards there is a consistent fear that they will get a letter that will admonish them or they will get so frequently and so easily into a disciplinary investigation against them, is the way for the civil service to produce good results.”

Kasoulides said civil servants today were “totally scared” to take any decisions and that the entire legislation regulating the public service should be overhauled.

“I think it can be done provided it is done in a non confrontational manner but with a consensual way. I am a man of consensus. I’ve always been. It’s my character and my character is not authoritarian. I am ready to listen,” he said.

“Being willing to listen and debate is much more effective than being stubborn. I am willing also to take responsibility for decisions and not create witch hunts in order to throw it on others.”

Asked the first thing he would do if elected, Kasoulides said he would start by limiting the Cyprus issue to 50 per cent of public debate.

“I will insist on it because the debate on the national issue is squashing any debate on any other issue concerning Cyprus,” he said.

Without adequate debate on other issues, Kasoulides said politicians were floundering on reforms and taking wrong turns because they were not sure if they really had the public mandate for those changes.

“We need debate on internal issues that are very important, to talk about education, to talk about our universities, to talk about the environment, to talk about road safety, to talk about drugs. We have to talk about these things. We can’t allow them to go on automatic pilot. I want a younger government, a healthy government which will include a number of women and not just one.”

PART II

KASOULIDES may want to limit debate on the Cyprus issue but it is still likely to form a very huge part of the challenge of ousting President Tassos Papadopoulos, if both end up running for President.With the 2004 referendum on the Annan plan still fresh in the minds of Greek Cypriots and the bitter rift it caused between the ‘yes’ and ‘no’ voters still lingering, the chances of a new battle between ‘yes’ and ‘no’ camps cannot be ruled out.“That’s another hurdle,” Kasoulides conceded, saying the issue might very well rear its head, “if the people doubt the results of the referendum in 2004 and they need to repeat a decision on the yes and the no”. “But it has been proved that the strategy that we have followed so far regarding the solution of the problem of Cyprus had failed,” he said.“Whether this strategy belongs to the philosophy of those that advocated a yes or those who advocated the no, we will never solve the Cyprus problem if we continue with this strategy.”Kasoulides said this was not the way forward but neither was adopting a policy of accepting limitations and compromises to the sovereignty of Cyprus to appease the other.“

That one will fail as well because the people belonging to the other philosophy will wreck both,” he said. “So what are we going to do? Are we going to remain as a partitioned Cyprus with all the risks? A lot of Cypriots say let them be over there but who are ‘they’? ‘They’ are not the Turkish Cypriots. ‘They’ is Turkey with the settlers, with the army, and I don’t think Cyprus can withstand borders with Turkey. The borders of Cyprus should be its shores.”Kasoulides said what was needed was a synthesis of the two philosophies, and a united front.

This would mean what he called an “evolutionary solution” to the Cyprus problem in two or even more stages.“We begin with the solution that is not to be sought in the depth of time, but as soon as possible, which will include all the compromises that are necessary in order to respond to all the fears and concerns of the two communities but for a limited period of time, to last as long as the mistrust between the two communities will last, and it will not last forever,” he said. “There is a mistrust that has happened over unfortunate episodes in our history. When we will work and live together this mistrust will go away at a certain period of time. I cannot specify. We will see. Five years, ten years, 15 years. I don’t know.”

Under this type of initiative, it would be agreed from the beginning that a constitutional assembly and an international conference of the guarantors would be convened to review the constitution and the treaties in order to remove from them all those elements that were initially introduced to fight the mistrust.

The second stage would respond to the aspiration of those who want a totally independent and fully sovereign Cyprus without limitations in basic freedoms.

“Let us set our mind to the future, for something that is constructive,” Kasoulides said, adding that if Turkish intransigence was then responsible for not making progress, Turkey should then bear the responsibility.

“For the last four years we have been bearing the responsibility. From the victims we have become the perpetrators and the Turkish Cypriots have become the poor isolated people,” he said.

This was particularly noticeable in Europe, where as an MEP Kasoulides spends a good deal of time.

“In my view, it’s getting worse and worse because nowadays no one is talking about the occupation of the Turkish army or the infringement of human rights of the refugees. Everyone now is talking about the so-called isolation of the Turkish Cypriots and if they talk about us they only talk about the Ankara protocol,” he said.

“We need a whole new strategy, a totally new approach. You cannot navigate with the syndrome of Cyprus under siege and this notion that everyone is conspiring against us.”To do this, he said Greek Cypriots must realise that the international community does not actually have a grudge against them because they rejected the Annan plan.

“It’s a wrong perception. What happened wrong is that the handling of the ‘no’ result was totally wrong. We based a number of negations on a negation on a negation. This is not a policy to follow and this brings us now to a very critical point where the issue of direct trade risks upgrading the illegal entity in the north.”

But Kasoulides has not forgotten the Turkish Cypriots as part of his vision for Cyprus. He said they must be wooed away from “the grip of Ankara”.“We need them to believe again in the benefits of a united Cyprus. So we need a specific policy on that but not a policy that will appear as a demarche of a last resort because we are in a difficult position.

It has to be a sincere policy,” he said. He said that although it was true that Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat had occasion to be disappointed on some issues over the past few years, he could not say he himself had no part in the distance that has been created between the two sides.

“But I strongly believe we should do what it is up to us to do, and if we do it rightly and if the other side does not respond at least we have done our duty. If we allow things to develop in a way that people consider our side is the negative one or the one seeking inertia in resolving the problem, then that period of inertia is the most dangerous period of things to deteriorate. That’s what I fear we are going through right now. If you do nothing, the risk is to make the present status quo become worse.”

Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2007

Gul: Turkey is never to back off TRNC

Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul stated yesterday in Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) that Turkey does not have an intention to back off TRNC and continues to lend support to the Turkish Cypriots. Speaking at a reception of a new daily in TRNC, Gul underlined that Turkey promotes all around the world an extensive solution with reference to the facts in the Island.

"There are two nations, two languages and two states in the island and an extensive solution without reference to these facts would not be possible," Gul said.

Pointing out that the implementation of the Direct Trade Regulation was the responsibility of the EU, not of the TRNC, Gul said whether it is approved or not, the TRNC would not lose anything.

Stating that if the process was delayed with certain tactics by ignoring the realities of the island, Gul said that Turkey would continue to support the TRNC by further developing its economic and social structure. Gul said that Turkey would continue with its constructive approach with regard to the Cyprus issue, where the Turkish Cypriots’ rights would not be renounced and Turkey would do its utmost to ensure that serious and solution oriented studies would be carried in the UN process, rather than delaying tactics.

Within the framework of his contacts, Gul met with TRNC President Mehmet Ali Talat and the Commander of the Turkish Peace Forces in Cyprus Lieutenant General Hayri Kivrikoglu. Gul also attended the opening ceremony of Mercure Hotel in Girne and the launching cocktail of a new daily, “Star Kibris”.

On the other hand, TRNC President Ferdi Sabit Soyer said that Turkey has always sided with the Turkish Cypriots' struggle for political and economic existence.

"The Turkish Cypriots will continue this struggle with the support of Turkey," said Soyer.

Meanwhile, Undersecretary to the TRNC President Rasit Pertev yesterday called on the Greek Cypriots to stop economic assaults directed to the Turkish Cypriots. Meeting U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matt Bryza and Doug Silliman in Washington, Pertev told the Anatolian news agency that he briefed U.S. officials about the current situation in the island.

"I expressed our concerns over exploitation maneuvers by the Greek Cypriots as regards the new process -launched by the United Nations-," he said.

The article below which was published in the 'Turkish Daily News' on 12 April 2007, and written by Alkan Chaglar, highlights the problems of Turkish settlers in Northern Cyprus and also immigrants to South Cyprus.

The article makes the point that both the Greek and Turk Cypriot communities have to realise that there are now considerable numbers of people from 'other' countries living amongst them. Also in regards to the Turkish settlers who have started a new life in Cyprus post-1974, this is an area of concern to both Greek & Turk Cypriots in any quest for a settlement.

I have my own views on all of this, and what a settlement agreement between the Greek & Turk Cypriots should look like, and I will posting details on that soon, but in my opinion the article below is well worth the read and makes some very valid points.

Why Cyprus cannot afford to exclude its Turkish settlers


For a troubled island country, for which the Americans and international community are spending millions on a ‘peace process,’ very little is being done to reverse deep sentiments of xenophobia prevalent in both main communities.

The Turkish settlers in Northern Cyprus are the new “demonized other.” To some, they represent some past crimes against Cyprus.Bbut over 33 years can they still be called “settlers”? While Greek and Turkish Cypriots join hands in bi-communal activities that will facilitate a future reunification, the settlers and their children remain excluded. But how can a sustainable peace be grasped and how can Cyprus really be free of outside meddling if one excludes undoubtedly a major political and economic force on the island?

Stereotypes and regionalism:

Long the butt of jokes, many ordinary Turkish settlers and their children are held responsible by native Turkish Cypriots for increasing levels of crime, moral corruption and pollution in Northern Cyprus. Treated with scorn by some Turkish Cypriots for whom they are a reminder of the chauvinism of Ankara, settlers are blamed for every ill in Northern Cyprus' society, from forest fires, petty crime, to drug-related shootings. A Turkish Cypriot Famagustian suffering from a superiority complex once admitted to me over dinner that he avoided certain areas of his town that was “Karasakal” territory as he didn't trust those mainlanders.

A highly derogatory and insulting term, “Karasakal” or even the newer term “Ficca” meaning sea weed are no different to terms like “Paki” or “Negro,” used by British racists, yet they are far too commonly utilized by Turkish Cypriots. In the absence of Greek Cypriots in the North, it appears that it is the settlers who have become the new demonized other.
Common disdain for non-Cypriots:

In the Republic of Cyprus, similar insults and stereotypes are made about the 30,000 Pontian Greeks living there. Occasionally united in their disdain for non-Cypriots, Greek and Turkish Cypriots see it as acceptable to hate their immigrants or settlers; some have forgotten that a similar hostility towards each other is the reason of why they remain divided today. As a “Londralı Kıbrıslı” or a “Charlie,” I cannot help but draw parallels with such views with those of British racists who hold asylum seeker, refugees and other immigrant communities responsible for all that may be wrong with modern-day Britain.

For a troubled island country, for which the Americans and international community are spending millions on a "peace process," very little is being done to reverse deep sentiments of xenophobia prevalent in both main communities. The failed Annan Plan did not even mention it or have a strategy for dealing with it even though it is at the root of the current division of the island.

But do politicians really want to tackle xenophobia? For those who genuinely believe the day will come for them to deport a family of four back to Anatolia, unrelenting Turcophobia acts as fuel to maintain their pursuit of idealistic goals. After all, Greek Cypriot politicians keen to hold on to their votes need to keep dreams alive. Forced to deceive their own voters by promising to repatriate settlers from Turkey even after 33 years of living there, they recognize only too well how swiftly they would lose votes if they said otherwise. But with the rhetoric of a smaller number of politicians it is apparent to me that they are not interested in restoring the human rights of their own community, but more in a form of revenge or punishment of their invaders. In their eyes it is as if human rights violated, can be suddenly cured if one violates the rights of others?

‘Turkey's responsibility':

Nobody can deny that the arrival of settlers was marked by the illegal looting and theft of Greek Cypriot owned properties. It transpired after a harrowing civil war, the memories of which are still fresh and the consequences devastating. I do not propose that true property owners remain dispossessed, in fact every effort should be made to restore their rights where possible, but feeding the masses improbable notions of restoring a past pre-1974 Cyprus and offering false hopes of repatriating 30 year settlers is deceptive and without purpose.

Whether some Cypriots can stomach it or not, Turkish settlers are at this moment an important ingredient in this character of the island and very few if any will be repatriated even if it is agreed on paper. A Republic of Cyprus diplomat once told me “they (the settlers) are Turkey's responsibility as citizens of that country, they are illegal.”

Without justifying Turkey's action, I ask how can a human being be illegal? Perhaps the settlers may still be citizens of Turkey, but is it accurate to assume Ankara represents their voice? Surely, the settler community has over 33 years of living in Cyprus developed its own list of issues.

Furthermore, if the issue of contention is the interference of Ankara then surely, the exclusion of this community is giving impetus to Ankara to defend “its citizens” in Cyprus? Is this also not contrary to forming a Cyprus that is no longer a playing field for Ankara and Athens?

Time to smell the Cypriot coffee:

Sooner or later Greek and Turkish Cypriots have to realize that the island in the 21st century is now home to many other communities. Before even considering the settlers, tens of thousands of Thai, Sri Lankans, Filipinos, and Indians workers, and Iranians and Lebanese refugees have made the island their new home. In the North, stowaway Syrians, ex-student Pakistanis and Bulgarians Turks are all adding to this mixture. Yet still the official face of Cyprus depicted by the policy and attitudes of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus and the northern authorities still paint the picture of a Greco-Turkish Cypriot island.

Is it not time the government and Northern authorities recognized the true face of Cyprus as it is? When are official policies and attitudes going to reflect a more accurate multi-cultural Cyprus? When are non-Greek and Turkish Cypriots going to be invited to play a part in the future of the island? If Cypriots are genuine about reaching a solution, they cannot afford to leave out in the cold a large proportion of their population who do not happen to be Greek or Turkish Cypriots.

Marginalization of settlers is not an option, as the group is an important political and economic force, and one of the fastest growing communities on the island. The reasons for their arrival may be painful and marred by injustice, but they are now after nearly half a century an ingredient in the mixture that is Cyprus. Their exclusion from North-South dialogue is both dangerous for long-term inter-community relations and an invitation or door wide open for Turkey to interfere in the internal affairs of Cyprus.
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British-born Cypriot Alkan Chaglar is a columnist for the UK-based Toplum Postasi, where he is English Editor