We have sovereignty, we (most probably) have oil, but we have no grey matter in our heads

By Nicos A Rolandis

OIL AND energy in a wider sense constitute the strongest economic power on our planet today. Eighty-three million barrels of crude oil are consumed every day, 30 billion barrels per year, of a total value of $2 trillion.

Millions of people are occupied worldwide with the exploration, development, production, refining, transportation and distribution of oil and other energy products. Big players: the United States, Russia, Europe, China. What about Cyprus?

We do not even qualify for the category of amateurs. Despite this and instead of behaving with modesty, prudence and care and of keeping the necessary balances in an unassuming manner on a subject which may be rife with dangers and potentially explosive, we had the fallacious impression that we might have things our way and that we might impose the solution of our choice on account of our sovereignty.

In reality, we wanted to deprive the Turkish Cypriots of the oil bonanza. We shunned Turkey and her menacing attitude, even if such an attitude was illegal. We sat comfortably back, anticipating the oil colossuses, who would be jostling to enter our front door.

But, alas, the colossuses did not turn up.I predicted this deplorable outcome on a number of occasions during the past two years, taking into account our attitude towards the Turkish Cypriots. Actually, this is the inference to which anyone with a few grams of grey matter in his skull would have been led.

It is a question of simple logic: Where would the colossuses come from?
1. Would the western oil behemoths, like ExxonMobil, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ENI, Repsol, etc, each one of which has a size 10 to 25 times larger than the economy of Cyprus, ever jeopardise their huge interests or risk a clash with Turkey for the sake of the Cyprus oil uncertainty? Could they ever act in such a frivolous and thoughtless manner?

2. The Russian titans, which are effectively controlled by the Kremlin, like Gazprom, Rosneft, Lukoil, SurgutNeftegaz, Sibneft, TNK and others have not displayed any interest in overseas oil exploration anywhere so far (with the exception of a limited activity by Lukoil). Consequently, how could they ever be interested in Cyprus, a frontier area, in a venture which might also incur the risk of damaging relations between Russia and Turkey in the sectors of oil, electricity, natural gas and energy? (It should be noted that Russia supplies almost all the natural gas requirements of Turkey).

I still recall when then Foreign Minister George Lillikas, in a show-off endeavour, had a meeting in Moscow with representatives of 25 Russian oil companies, which supposedly were very interested in Cyprus. They had moved nowhere outside Russia, but they were interested in Cyprus! Their big interest ended up in a big zero.

3. China: the Yellow Dragon. She has $1.4 trillion in cash in her pocket, an amount not matched in history by any country or entity ever before. Would it be possible that the state-owned oil majors of such a mighty country, like PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC would ignore China’s vast interests with Turkey, a country which, inter alia, is closely connected with the oil producing countries of Central Asia, which are China’s energy partners?

China has recently unilaterally cancelled a contract to supply military equipment to Cyprus in order to satisfy Turkey. It has now brought us down to earth again by ignoring us in our oil ambitions.

Unfortunately our possible oil reserves suffer from the same incurable malady which has afflicted the Cyprus problem as well.

A disease of the brain: “Arrogancitis” – a stupid feeling of self-importance, an absolute distancing from realism.We sweep under the carpet and we do not want to admit the fact that we (like the Turkish Cypriots) have contributed to the present predicament of Cyprus through our many blunders, omissions and crimes of the first 14 years of the Republic of Cyprus.

And when someone, acting in a haughty manner, conceals his own mistakes and divorces himself from truth, he inevitably reaches the wrong conclusions about justice. This is how the people of Cyprus on both sides of the dividing line have been misguided over the years; they have been taught by politicians to base their judgment on the sins of the other community only and to hush up their own. This is also why the Cyprus problem has remained unresolved for so long…

Until a certain moment in time when a Mr Matsakis (most popular MP of his party in Limassol and the only member of the European Parliament elected by the President’s party) emerges and suggests the partition of Cyprus, the creation of two states.

And why should he not? Mr Matsakis simply reflects the deeds of his own government.Through a number of articles, I suggested a methodology, under the auspices of the United Nations, on the basis of which the Turkish Cypriots might also benefit in a fair way from the possible oil reserves of Cyprus. Such a process would also move away the Turkish threat.

Of the Cypriot political parties, only AKEL supported that the Turkish Cypriots would be entitled to a share of the Cyprus oil. Some other parties kept silent. There are also those who are strongly opposed, because, as they put it, we still suffer the Turkish occupation and the Turkish Cypriots still exploit our properties. They argue as if Hellenism and the Greek Cypriots had been saints, innocent and sinless in the 1960s. As if the 1974 coup d’état (for union with Greece) was executed by extraterrestrials. As if we Greek Cypriots are not to blame when we rejected over the past 33 years every initiative on Cyprus proposed by four UN Secretaries-general (Waldheim, Perez de Cuelliar, Boutros Ghali and Annan), all of which were unanimously approved and endorsed by the UN Security Council, and all of which were contemptuously rejected by us.

With such a mentality, we shall never recover our oil, if it exists. Part of the oil will be pumped by multinationals working in the area on the basis of agreements with other countries. The one or two small companies which showed an interest in the Cyprus bid round will not manage to face off Turkey.

They will invoke “force majeure” and they will depart.With such a mentality, the Cyprus problem will never be solved either.

Besides, one wonders what is left for there to be resolved. Partition is gradually sprawling all over in recent years, supported by a large chunk of the population.

After all, have we not noticed what happened in Greece the other day? In a three-hour TV election debate, none of the six candidates for Prime Minister, and none of the six journalists present, uttered a single word about the Cyprus problem.

And why should they do so? Why should they bother if we ourselves are not really interested and we simply waste our time with the empty July 8 agreement and other absurdities?