The end of Cyprus’ leverage on Turkey?

IF CYPRUS is a mere thorn in the side of Turkey’s EU accession, then France has suddenly become a millstone around its neck.It might appear gratifying that, since Nicolas Sarkozy’s election as President last Sunday, the EU’s second largest member state has very serious doubts about Turkey’s accession, but for Cyprus such support may prove a double-edged sword.

After three years of making a nuisance of itself in corridors of Brussels, Nicosia finally appears to have a strong public ally.The only hitch is that in a currently volatile Turkey, where there is a strong possibility Ankara may turn its back on the EU, there will be no incentive whatsoever for Turkey to make a deal on Cyprus.

The fact is, that as things stand, Cyprus suddenly desperately needs Turkey’s EU process on track, while Turkey feels less minded than ever to make any move on Cyprus to appease Brussels. The Greek Cypriot side has always viewed EU accession as a lever against Turkey, but in the last three years it has seen the EU bending over backwards to smooth Ankara’s path, resulting in zero gains for Nicosia.

Turkey has been used to getting what it wants, getting away with flouting the customs union protocol to normalise trade with Cyprus, receiving a slap on the wrist from Brussels but no orders to open its ports and airports.

Is that all about to change, with Sarkozy repeatedly insisting during his campaign that Turkey was in Asia and had no place in the European Union?

Brussels has been rushing to soften the blow, saying this week it would open three more negotiating chapters with Turkey by the end of June. Talks on eight chapters have been frozen over the protocol issue. Nicosia must now walk the tightrope between supporting its new best friend and keeping Turkey in the game for the benefit of a Cyprus settlement, preferably without seeing Ankara receiving the preferential treatment it has until now.

''It’s up to Turkey itself to prove with actions and not words that it is entitled to receive a European identity, and this proof depends on Ankara's full compliance with the European prerequisites and its response with its European obligations and commitments,'' the Government Spokesman said on Monday, when asked about Sarkozy’s statements.

One diplomat said Cyprus had forged a close relationship with France in the last few years, despite diverging views on Turkey’s accession.

“Most people would say that while Sarkozy is in power Turkey’s EU progress looks less certain,” he said.

“For a country like Cyprus, this should be an issue of concern. If you’re using the EU process to push Turkey into a corner to make compromises… if Turkey is turned, or turns away, you’re left hanging with nothing.”

Analyst Hubert Faustmann said it was obvious Sarkozy’s election did not bode well for the Cyprus issue. “But the government’s policy is contradictory. Papadopoulos’ policy is squeezing concessions out of Turkey and jeopardising its accession. This is a high-risk strategy, and Cyprus will end up in a corner,” he said.

Faustmann said Cyprus’ relations with France were akin to the old saying, ‘The enemy of my enemy is my friend’, but he warned that if Nicosia took this road it would only block a solution, which now seemed more remote than ever. “This is a high-risk gamble that is less and less likely to pay off,” he added.Another analyst, James Ker-Lindsay, said it was possible that Turkey’s generals may decide that Sarkozy's election meant there was now no real prospect of Turkey joining the EU, which might prompt them to a harder line against the ruling Justice and Development Party.

The possibility of a coup could not be discounted either, he said, which would end any remaining hopes Turkey has for membership. “A military intervention would almost certainly kill of hopes of any settlement to the Cyprus dispute,” he said.

But DISY MEP and possible presidential candidate Ioannis Kasoulides said it was too early to draw any conclusions on how the developments in France and Turkey would affect the Cyprus issue.

Kasoulides said Sarkozy had been very explicit in what he said about Turkey: “He openly expressed something that has been lurking around the public opinion of certain European countries,” he added.Kasoulides thought EU negotiations with Ankara would continue for a while at a slower rate, and that perhaps the issues of a status short of full membership would come up at another stage.

He also warned of the risk of Turkey turning its back on the EU. But he added that, even with the prospect of full membership until now, he had not seen Turkey make the slightest concession on Cyprus.