Cyprus's Papadopoulos Ousted in Presidential Poll

Cyprus President Tassos Papadopoulos was knocked out of the race for a second five-year term as president, rekindling hopes for a settlement on the divided eastern Mediterranean island.

Ioannis Kasoulides, a former foreign minister, and Demetris Christofias, the leader of the communist party, will proceed to a run-off vote for the post on Feb. 24, according to state broadcaster CyBc.

Kasoulides led today's voting with 33.5 percent, while Christofias got 33.3 percent. Papadopoulos came in third with 31.8 percent.

Opinion polls had forecast Papadopoulos, who led Greek Cypriot opposition to a 2004 plan to reunite the island, would win his way through to the second round. Cyprus has been divided since 1974, when Turkey invaded the northern third of Cyprus to oppose a coup by supporters of a union with Greece.

``We're called on to decide on Cyprus's future,'' Christofias, 61, said in statements broadcast on CyBC.

``We all sense that time is running out as long as things remain stagnant.''

Papadopoulos, 74, was instrumental in blocking a United Nations-backed plan to end the division, arguing the plan gave Turkish Cypriots more land and political power than their 20 percent weighting in the population. Turkish Cypriots voted for the plan.

Supporting the Plan

Today, after news of his defeat, he said he was unrepentant in supporting the plan saying the rejection meant the ``Republic of Cyprus'' was rescued.

Kasoulides, 59, a member of the center-right Disy party, and Christofias, the leader of the party that has traditionally had the best ties with the Turkish Cypriot community, are seen by analysts as being more flexible on reviving talks to end the division.

``Both Kasoulides and Christofias could deliver a solution,'' said James Ker-Lindsay, senior research fellow in European and international studies at Kingston University in London.

Kassoulides, who's now a member of the European Parliament, had supported the Annan Plan, named after the former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, and has promised to begin talks on a solution by meeting with Turkish Cypriot leaders ``the day after'' he's elected.

Today, he said that he would launch a ``diplomatic attack'' to boost the country's international standing and use his EU connections for a solution.

Election result to be known 8.30pm Sunday

Cyprus Chief Returning Officer Lazaros Savides has said that the initial results in Sunday’s presidential elections are expected around 2030 local time (1830 GMT).

Speaking in Larnaca, during a meeting with local election officials, he said in the second round of the elections the result is expected slightly earlier, at 2000 local time.

The main three candidates in the presidential race are incumbent President of the Republic Tassos Papadopoulos, seeking re-election, House President and General Secretary of AKEL Demetris Christofias and former foreign minister Ioannis Kasoulides.

“Presiding election officials must be very careful in the exercise of their duties to ensure full compliance with and application of the law in order to avoid any unpleasant circumstance,” Savides said after the meeting.

Greek Cyprus Ballot Remains Too Close to Call

Three candidates remain practically tied just days before the presidential ballot in Greek Cyprus according to a poll by Cymar. 31 per cent of respondents would support incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos in this month’s election, 30.5 would vote for Dimitris Christofias, and 27.5 per cent would back Ioannis Kasoulides.

The presidential election in Greek Cyprus is scheduled for Feb. 17. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place a week later.

Papadopoulos won the 2003 election with 51.5 per cent of the vote. He has been endorsed by the Democratic Party (DIKO), the Movement of Social Democrats (EDEK) and the European Party (EvroKo).

Christofias is the president of the House of Representatives and secretary general of the left-wing Progressive Party of the Working People (AKEL).

Kasoulides, a former foreign minister, is backed by the opposition Democratic Rally (DISY).

In 2006, Greek Cypriot voters renewed the House of Representatives. Final results gave AKEL and DIKO 29 seats in the legislative branch, enough to guarantee that Christofias would preside the chamber.

Relations between the Greek majority and the Turkish minority in Cyprus have been frayed since 1974, when a Greek-sponsored attempt to seize the government was met by military intervention from Turkey.

In the skirmish, the Turks gained control of almost two-fifths of the island, which in 1983 declared itself the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. The Turkish government has never acknowledged the Greek Cypriot administration. More than 30,000 Turkish soldiers occupy the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

On Feb. 7, Kasoulides said that he would press for the reunification of the island by working with United Nations (UN) secretary-general Ban Ki-moon, the Security Council’s five permanent members and the European Commission, adding:

"Either personally or through my envoys, I will call on them and I will be very persistent. My credentials will be those of a man who wants a solution. Our credibility in Europe, with regard to a political settlement, is at its lowest and we have to rectify that."

Polling Data

If the elections were next Sunday, who would you vote for?

Jan. 2008 Nov. 2007 Sept. 2007
Tassos Papadopoulos 31% 31% 30%

Dimitris Christofias 30.5% 30% 26%

Ioannis Kasoulides 27.5% 29% 29%

Source: Cymar Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 Greek Cyprus adults, conducted from Jan. 19 to Jan. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

Crucial Cyprus election seen going down to wire

Half a million Greek Cypriots vote for a new president next week in a cliffhanger race which could influence Turkey's EU accession hopes and affect NATO-EU cooperation in trouble spots worldwide.

Polls published on Sunday give incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos, communist challenger Demetris Christofias and right-winger Ioannis Kassoulides virtually equal chances in the February 17 vote, possibly leading to a run-off on February 24.

"Only the Pythia knows," wrote the daily Politis, referring to the priestess at the Delphi Oracle, credited by ancient Greeks with having powers to predict the future.

Regardless of who wins, diplomats say mediators plan one last crack this year at mending fences between Greek and Turkish Cypriots on opposing sides of a U.N. ceasefire line which has split the Mediterranean island for almost 35 years.

The festering conflict has been a thorn in relations between NATO allies Turkey and Greece, and the stakes from the Cyprus spillover are high in both the European Union and NATO.

Since Cyprus joined the EU in 2004, represented by Greek Cypriots, it has frustrated Turkey's EU aspirations. Sparring between Turkey and Cyprus has also hampered joint EU-NATO cooperation in Kosovo and Afghanistan.

"The choice is if we want to use the next few years to try to finally solve this problem, or if we will see a continuing drift towards partition," a Western diplomat told Reuters.

Diplomats see Kassoulides and Christofias as more moderate than Papadopoulos, whose sometimes authoritarian manner has earned him a "hardliner" label, a tag he vehemently rejects
Papadopoulos led the Greek Cypriot rejection of a U.N. reunification blueprint in 2004, with critics charging that he has made no real attempt to break the deadlock since then.

The United Nations is expected to send aides in March to assess reunification prospects. Analysts and diplomats say it may be a half-hearted effort if Papadopoulos wins a second term.

"This is a very decisive election. The record of the Papadopoulos presidency is one of non-progress ... and people expect more of the same if he is re-elected," said analyst Hubert Faustmann.

Divided since a Turkish invasion in 1974 triggered by a brief Greek-inspired coup, an army of mediators have failed to resolve the conflict.

"This problem won't go away on its own, and it will make things a lot more difficult in terms of regional cooperation as time goes by," another diplomat said.

There is a growing consensus that mediators can ill afford further delays in addressing Cyprus, lest reconciliation efforts begin to overlap with Turkey's EU accession talks, already troubled by opposition from France and Germany.

"This would risk ... trade-offs between the two, or a cumulative burden of compromises that might become too great for the Turks to accept, potentially wrecking both negotiations with one stroke," said former British envoy David Hannay.

The most important election you're not talking about

We're in the midst of the most exciting presidential race in decades here in the United States. Pakistan's legislative elections are coming up on Feb. 18. And within the next two months, we'll also see elections in Russia, Spain, and Taiwan.

But there's one more upcoming election that you probably haven't heard much about: the presidential race in Cyprus that takes place in two rounds on Feb. 17 and 24.

Right now, there's a virtual dead heat between the top three candidates.

You might be asking: Why should you care about a presidential election taking place on a tiny island that's home to fewer than one million people? We'll get there, but first, a little background.

Cyprus has been split into two entities ever since 1974, when Turkey invaded the island in response to a military coup that was backed by Athens. The northern part is currently recognized as a state by only Turkey. Everyone else recognizes the southern Greek-speaking part as the official government.

As the EU expanded, there were hopes that Cyprus could enter as a united island, but unification talks sponsored by the U.N. were unsuccessful. Cyprus joined the EU, still divided, in May 2004.

Current Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos, who is running for re-election, is considered by many to be a hardliner when it comes to Greek-Turkish rapprochement. One of his opponents, Communist Dimitris Kristofias, was previously in a ruling coalition with Papadopoulos, but decided to run on his own this time. The other front-runner is Ioannis Kasoulides, a member of the European Parliament and someone who is largely in favor of unification. The winner will be tasked with determining how unification talks move forward.

So, the Cypriot elections mean a lot for the future Europe as a whole, and not just for the island itself.

Turkey will never be able to accede to the EU so long as Cyprus is opposed, and Cyprus will continue to oppose it so long as Turkey still recognizes the north as legitimate.

Cyprus also plays a major role in how the EU approaches prospective independence for Kosovo. Cyprus is opposed to independence for Kosovo because it's viewed as a vote against U.N. legitimacy.

Greek Cypriots are also worried that Kosovar independence would be a rubber stamp for Turkish Cypriots to gain legal recognition. The most powerful states in the EU are in favor of independence for Kosovo. But as long as Cyprus remains opposed, the EU's goal for a common foreign policy remains stymied.

The elections in Cyprus may seem like small peanuts compared to other happenings in the world, but there are a lot of people who are watching closely.

Acting in the best interest of Cyprus
byKarin Resetarits*

When 500,000 people on a Mediterranean island are going to vote for a new president, the political attention paid to the matter is usually moderate. Cyprus, however, is different. Cyprus is a very special case in the EU.

None of the other member states would accept that one part of the population is treated as European citizens without European rights, but the current government of Cyprus does. Having rejected the UN plan in 2004, the government of Tassos Papadopoulos has not managed to find a solution for the Cyprus problem.

As a liberal member of the high-level contact group of the European Parliament for relations with Turkish Cypriots, I have visited the island a dozen times over the last three years. I know the complicated conflict very well: the deadlock that paralyses all parties involved, making it impossible for them to move forward.

There are always two sides of a coin. Wise leadership needs to keep this in mind and pay attention to what moves the two sides. In Cyprus I only hear one side complaining about the other, while at the same time the praising their own willingness and generosity. I experienced this behavior in the north as well as in the south.

Both sides deeply mistrust each other. This is the current unity of Cyprus.

The Cyprus conflict has turned into an acrimonious divorce case. And, like in divorce, there is an economically powerful part famishing the weaker one hoping that one day it will have to return home. But, like women or children who were once mistreated, often the weaker part rather prefers to stay in poverty rather than suffer oppression.

If I ask people in the north "What do you want?" the answer is "a better life and equal rights."

If I ask people in the south, the answer is "I want my property back and the Turkish soldiers out of my country."

Thus: Give Turkish Cypriots political and economic equality, give back Greek Cypriots their property, which they had to leave 1974 when the Turkish army took over one-third of the island, and send away all the soldiers -- UN, Turkish and Greek -- to a place where they are needed now.

The European Union should be the only guarantee power for peace and freedom in Cyprus.

There are several huge obstacles that have to be overcome. They are primarily psychological because both sides have been suffering now for decades. All parties involved have been grossly negligent in not moving since the rejected referendum in 2004.

A majority in Greek Cyprus voted against the referendum following the advice of their political and religious leaders. But what is the alternative? In a democracy the majority defines the policy -- but the will of all the people has to be considered to avoid riots.

Since there was no other plan for settlement, Turkish Cypriots started to do their own business. And since there is no white economy allowed, the grey and black markets started to blossom in the north. Property is sold and investors from all over the world are constructing holiday homes for people who want to have a small house close to the beach in the Mediterranean Sea.

The buyers are mostly people who just retired and who do not care if the property is legal or if it belongs to a Greek Cypriot -- because they think the Cyprus conflict will last longer than their life on earth. This is a huge problem that the current political leaders have to answer for.

What Cyprus truly needs is an integrative leadership and not a separatist one. Cyprus is suffering from weak politics. But let me be frank, dear citizens of the world, this is not a specific Cyprus problem; this is the case in many states. But Cyprus is different; Cyprus has a problem that the other 26 EU-member states don't have. This is why the final judgment of who is going to lead Greek Cyprus is more than essential.

The people of Cyprus must find a modern, European and peaceful solution. They have to be aware that being part of the EU means making compromises. Don't trust politicians who repeat the same words over and over again. They are trapped in a deadlock of shallow phrases.

Is there any candidate who will dare to present a fresh look at the Cyprus problem? If so, support him. Cyprus needs new ideas and someone who looks forward, not back into the past.

Good luck, people of Cyprus -- Greek and Turkish alike -- for the elections. You need a change. You all deserve for things to go back to normal.

*Karin Resetarits is an Austrian minister in the European Parliament and a member of its northern Cyprus high-level contact group.

Kosovo's independence weighs on Cyprus' elections

"Even though the first round of the presidential election is taking place in four days [Sunday, February 17] and the candidates are neck and neck, the attention of Greek Cypriots is fixed on Kosovo," writes the editorialist Lefteris Adinilis.

"Because election day is also the day that Kosovo is expected to declare independence. The principle theme of the elections is the reunification of the island: how can't we see in Kosovo's probable declaration of independence an imposing shadow?

Russia dropped a diplomatic bomb this week by making a parallel between the independence of Kosovo and the independence of Northern Cyprus. ... Russia is the only permanent member of the UN Security Council that is openly opposed to Kosovo's independence.

It will refuse to recognise it.

So, is the reunification of Cyprus, which seems so close, already dead?"